What a Warmer Climate Does to One River

On one Michigan basin, twenty-one climate models agree on the direction of most changes and disagree on their size.

For each of the twenty-one climate models: historical and future runs of one SWAT+ model, identical except for the climate.

Each circle is one climate model. Air temperature rises in each of the twenty-one climate models, by a median of three point five five degrees Celsius.

Snowfall drops in each of the twenty-one climate models, by a median of forty-two point one percent.

In twenty of the twenty-one climate models, the center of the year's streamflow arrives earlier, by a median of about twelve days.

Winter streamflow rises in each of the twenty-one climate models. Summer streamflow goes up in seven and down in fourteen.

Outlet streamflow rises in nineteen of twenty-one climate models, by a median of sixteen point one percent. The climate models range from minus ten point seven to plus thirty-two point six percent, and two show a decline. For this quantity the spread is the result.

The highlighted circle is among the warmest of the twenty-one climate models, yet its streamflow change is below the median. How warm a climate model runs does not decide what it does to the river, which is why one climate model is not enough.

We run it on your SWAT+ model as a quoted service. Ask for a climate-scenario run at swatgenx.com.