SWATGenX · calibration results
43 basins calibrated, coast to coast
Validated on held-out years — validation tracks calibration (median ΔNSE −0.04).
Each dot is that gauge's run in this benchmark. One gauge, Bixler Run (USGS 01567500), was calibrated again later and verified on 2012 to 2015; that run is on the Chesapeake Bay hub.
Fleet distribution
Each point is one engineer-calibrated basin with a held-out validation split. The dashed line is 1:1; the dashed crosshairs mark Moriasi monthly NSE = 0.5. The cloud shows how validation tracks calibration across the fleet.
Source: calibrationFleetSummary.json ← fleet_summary.py / fleet_summary.json. Paired median ΔNSE -0.039 (display -0.04).
High-skill exemplars
Four basins where monthly calibration and validation skill both land in the high range. These are dated study results: each card names its calibration run and the build it ran on. The models these sites serve today do not carry these calibrations. Display values are rounded; exact scores are in the fleet JSON.
California · USGS 11481200
monthly NSE · calibration / validation
Calibration run of 21 July 2026 on a build dated 3 June 2026.
This site's model todayKentucky · USGS 03262001
monthly NSE · calibration / validation
Calibration run of 22 July 2026 on a build dated 22 July 2026.
This site's model todayOregon · USGS 14161500
monthly NSE · calibration / validation
Calibration run of 21 July 2026 on a build dated 8 June 2026.
This site's model todayPennsylvania · USGS 01451800
monthly NSE · calibration / validation
Calibration run of 19 July 2026 on a build dated 3 June 2026.
This site's model todayRegional MMPSO basins
In peer review (2026)
Platform paper · manuscript
Not currently under review (2026)
Engine acceleration · method page
Calibration methods write-up: calibration methods.
Appendix — Florida & Illinois worked examples
Compact single-gauge appendices: initialization → calibration → verification metrics, Morris screening, and web hydrographs. Florida reaches strong split-sample skill; Illinois is the harder snowmelt/baseflow case shown unedited.
Florida controlled basin (USGS 02297600)
Calibration station: 02297600 (gage channel 2). The paper calibration, re-scored by the code package (its archived objective reproduces bit for bit).
Interactive figures: metrics come from the run of record's result files; a hydrograph is drawn only where that run saved its daily series.
No hydrograph for this stage: the run of record saved its metrics but not the daily series. The numbers above are from its result files.
Calibration best (daily)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Calibration station | USGS streamgage 02297600 (NHDPlus HR region 0310) |
| Scored calibration window | 2013-01-01 to 2018-12-31 |
| Independent verification window | 2019-01-01 to 2024-12-31 |
| Simulation & optimizer | Simulated 2010–2018 with a 3-year warm-up; particle-swarm optimization with 36 particles and a cap of 70 iterations, 6 run concurrently. It stopped after 27 iterations (0–26), at the minimum-iteration floor of the optimizer’s own convergence rule. |
Sensitivity analysis (Morris)
| Rank | Parameter | μ* (mean effect) | σ (interaction) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | surq_lag | 0.6435 | 0.4685 |
| 2 | perco | 0.288 | 0.4113 |
| 3 | cn3_swf | 0.1413 | 0.1699 |
| 4 | alpha_bf | 0.0921 | 0.0987 |
| 5 | dep_wt | 0.0882 | 0.1565 |
| 6 | spec_yld | 0.0545 | 0.0945 |
| 7 | flo_min | 0.0519 | 0.0774 |
| 8 | dp_es | 0.05 | 0.0282 |
Calibration and verification results
| Stage | Period | Daily NSE | Monthly NSE | Daily KGE | Monthly KGE | PBIAS (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initialization pool best | 2013–2018 | 0.795 | 0.843 | 0.680 | 0.713 | 28.13 |
| Calibration best | 2013–2018 | 0.837 | 0.900 | 0.817 | 0.888 | 9.47 |
| Verification of the calibrated set | 2019–2024 | 0.690 | 0.730 | 0.679 | 0.725 | 22.87 |
Illinois controlled basin (USGS 05536265)
Calibration station: 05536265 (gage channel 56). The channel-56 calibration (twin T56); verification is its best member re-run on held-out years.
Interactive figures: metrics come from the run of record's result files; a hydrograph is drawn only where that run saved its daily series.
No hydrograph for this stage: the run of record saved its metrics but not the daily series. The numbers above are from its result files.
Calibration best (daily)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Calibration station | USGS streamgage 05536265 (NHDPlus HR region 0712) |
| Scored calibration window | 2020-01-01 to 2024-12-31 |
| Independent verification window | 2012-01-01 to 2015-12-31 |
| Simulation & optimizer | Simulated 2018–2024 with a 2-year warm-up; particle-swarm optimization with 48 particles and a cap of 50 iterations, 6 run concurrently. It stopped after 27 iterations (0–26), at the minimum-iteration floor of the optimizer’s own convergence rule, while still improving slowly — complete, but not a plateau. |
Sensitivity analysis (Morris)
Screened in June 2026 against the gauge as then mapped (channel 25), before the calibration of record moved to channel 56; the ranking is shown as screened.
| Rank | Parameter | μ* (mean effect) | σ (interaction) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | melt_min | 3.82 | 9.8425 |
| 2 | k | 3.6832 | 3.7334 |
| 3 | cn3_swf | 3.3198 | 2.0242 |
| 4 | perco | 3.1507 | 4.9258 |
| 5 | melt_max | 2.9509 | 9.8071 |
| 6 | urban_cn_c | 2.8681 | 2.9149 |
| 7 | mann | 1.782 | 1.3773 |
| 8 | surq_lag | 1.7715 | 2.685 |
Calibration and verification results
| Stage | Period | Daily NSE | Monthly NSE | Daily KGE | Monthly KGE | PBIAS (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initialization pool best | 2020–2024 | 0.504 | 0.744 | 0.579 | 0.822 | -0.01 |
| Calibration best | 2020–2024 | 0.539 | 0.764 | 0.661 | 0.863 | -0.30 |
| Verification of the calibrated set | 2012–2015 | 0.434 | 0.542 | 0.510 | 0.614 | -19.52 |
Notes
- Fleet metrics come from the published engineer-run digest (paired calibration vs held-out validation).
- Verification uses an independent window with no overlap with the scored calibration period (split-sample).
- If you order a calibration run on your own model, the wizard shows runtime/cost estimates before launch.